Should You Buy a House Now or Wait? (I Get Asked This Constantly)

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"Do I buy now, Jared, or do I wait?" I get some version of this question almost every week, and I wish I had a tidy one-size-fits-all answer for you. I don't. There are too many variables, too many personal situations, and too many different goals for me to just tell everyone the same thing. What I can do is walk you through how I actually think about it, so you can make the call that's right for you.

Can You Time the Market? Nope, and Here's Why That's Okay

I've had clients try to time the market. They were convinced they'd sell at the very top and buy back in at the very bottom. It almost never works out that cleanly, and more often than not, the bottom they were waiting for never showed up the way they expected. If you truly have the gift of predicting exactly where home values and interest rates are headed, please, go make yourself very rich. The rest of us mortals are stuck watching the market do its thing and reacting as it happens, not before.

Think back to the run-up before the big housing crash. Everybody was convinced the good times would just keep rolling. Then, seemingly overnight, the whole thing flipped. Sometimes the market shifts fast and hard, and sometimes it drifts slowly. Either way, nobody rings a bell to let you know it's happening. That's just how markets work: they respond to what buyers and sellers are actually doing in real time, not to anyone's prediction.

Interest Rates Are Even Harder to Call Than They Used to Be

There used to be a version of my job where I could watch rates trending in a direction, float a client's rate if things looked like they were heading down, or lock it in if they were clearly climbing. These days, with everything going on in the world, that kind of trend-watching is a lot less reliable. Rates can swing meaningfully from one day to the next, so for the vast majority of my clients right now, I lock the rate as soon as we know they're moving forward. I don't want anyone caught off guard by a rate that moved against them overnight while they were "waiting for a better deal."

A quick myth to bust while I'm at it: rates are not directly tied to whatever the Fed decides to do. People assume if the Fed cuts, mortgage rates automatically drop, or if the Fed hikes, rates automatically rise. It doesn't work like that. Mortgage rates follow the broader market and investor behavior, which can move independently of, or even opposite to, the Fed's decisions. Global events, oil, geopolitics, all of it can ripple into your rate in ways that have nothing to do with a Fed announcement.

Home Values and Interest Rates Are Not Riding the Same Train

This trips people up all the time. Home values and interest rates are two completely separate trains on two completely separate tracks. They don't move together, and they don't have to. You can have values climbing while rates climb too. You can have values climbing while rates fall. Around here in the Phoenix area, and especially out in Queen Creek where I live, values have generally kept climbing because people keep wanting to move here. A friend of mine in Indiana has seen his home value creep up too, just much more slowly, because the demand pulling people to his area isn't nearly as strong. Location drives that part of the equation far more than any national headline does.

Over the long run, real estate tends to trend upward, mostly thanks to inflation and ongoing demand, even though it can dip along the way. The real question isn't whether values will rise eventually. It's how fast, and that depends heavily on your specific market and what's pulling people toward, or away from, your area.

Don't Let Rates Talk You Out of a Move You Actually Need

Here's where I get a little firm with clients. If your family is outgrowing your home, if you need an office because you're working remotely now, if mom and dad are moving in and you need a casita, or if you just want the backyard with the pool instead of building one yourself, those are real reasons to move. Putting that decision on hold purely because the rate isn't your dream number is where people get stuck. Rates move. They go up, they come down, they wiggle around like a slow rollercoaster, and if they drop after you buy, you have an option: refinance.

Refinancing is exactly what it sounds like. If rates improve down the road, you can restructure your loan to match, and you are absolutely not required to refinance with whoever is currently servicing your loan. That's a common misconception. The company collecting your monthly payment isn't obligated to give you the best deal, and honestly, they often won't. Any licensed loan officer can handle your refinance, and it's worth shopping around when the time comes, same as you should when buying in the first place. Just know that a refinance isn't free. Someone is always getting paid somewhere in that transaction, but there are ways to structure it so it doesn't cost you much, or anything, out of pocket upfront.

What I'm Seeing Right Now in Queen Creek

Locally, the market out here in Queen Creek, Mesa, Gilbert, and Chandler is still active. There are more homes available than there used to be, which gives buyers more breathing room, but my phone is still ringing with people ready to move. That steady demand is exactly what keeps home values supported over time. I've lived through the other side of this too. I bought at what turned out to be a rough moment, right before rates jumped and buyer demand pulled back hard. For a while, values softened. But the ongoing pull of people and companies relocating to the Phoenix area eventually pushed things back on an upward path. My personal takeaway from that experience: I pay a lot more attention to what home values are doing long term than I do to chasing the perfect interest rate, because the rate is something I can always revisit later.

So, Buy Now or Wait?

Honestly, that part is yours to decide. It comes down to your life, your budget, and what you and your family actually need out of a home. What I can do is sit down with you, walk through your specific scenario, and lay out the real information so you're deciding with facts instead of guesswork or internet noise. No pressure, just clarity.

Up next: I'm putting together a video on exactly what I'd do today if I were even loosely thinking about buying a home down the road. Stay tuned.

I'm Jared Halbert, mortgage broker based in Queen Creek, Arizona, serving buyers all across the state. If you've got questions, reach out. That's what I'm here for.